El Niño effect: Kharif crops, winter sowing face stress as drought hits 53% of India
El Niño effect: El Niño has left more than 50% of India grappling with drought conditions, severely affecting kharif crops currently in the fields. Maharashtra has been particularly hard hit, with extreme drought affecting a large part of its agricultural areas. Other key agricultural states are also experiencing varying levels of drought, raising concerns about crop yields and soil moisture levels as winter sowing approaches.
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Context
According to the India Drought Monitor, developed by 's Water and Climate Lab, over 53% of India's landmass is currently experiencing some form of drought conditions. This significant expansion of drought-affected areas, driven by an induced 15% deficit in the southwest monsoon, poses a severe threat to the standing Kharif crops and upcoming winter sowing.
UPSC Perspectives
Geographical
The current drought situation provides a real-time case study of the [El Niño] effect on the . (a warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean) typically suppresses monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent by disrupting the normal pressure gradients and wind patterns. The had accurately forecasted a 'below-normal' monsoon at 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA). It's crucial for UPSC to understand the geographical distribution of the drought: coastal and central states like Maharashtra (85.2% under drought), Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana are severely affected, while northeastern states and Odisha are relatively spared. The India Drought Monitor is notable because it relies on a composite index combining hydro-meteorological data, soil moisture, and satellite imagery from and NASA, moving beyond just rainfall deficit to measure actual water stress.
Economic
The expanding drought conditions present an immediate macroeconomic challenge, particularly regarding food inflation and agricultural growth. The stress is acute in rain-fed agricultural regions, raising critical concerns for the yields of Kharif crops, especially pulses like tur and urad, and oilseeds like soybean. Lower yields could exacerbate existing inflationary pressures in the food basket, forcing the to maintain a tight monetary policy. Furthermore, deficient soil moisture and depleted reservoirs will negatively impact the upcoming Rabi (winter) sowing season. This dual blow to agricultural output can dampen rural demand, a key driver of the overall Indian economy. The situation underscores the urgent need for climate-resilient agriculture, improved irrigation efficiency (like micro-irrigation promoted under the ), and the cultivation of drought-tolerant crop varieties.
Governance
This crisis highlights the critical importance of effective disaster management and proactive governance in mitigating agricultural distress. Drought declaration is a complex process involving state governments assessing rainfall deficiency, crop area sown, and remote sensing data, guided by the published by the Union Government. States like Maharashtra, where over 43% of the area is in 'extreme' or 'exceptional' drought, will need to initiate rapid relief measures. This includes providing supplementary irrigation, distributing drought-resistant seeds, ensuring the availability of fodder, and potentially expanding employment through to support rural livelihoods. The crisis also tests the efficacy of crop insurance schemes like the in providing timely compensation to affected farmers. Long-term governance strategies must focus on watershed development, rainwater harvesting, and integrated water resources management as mandated by the .