India sees relations with China in a bilateral context, Beijing has never seen it that way: Vijay Gokhale
China’s past decisions to go to war were not driven by only territorial or military objectives, but shaped by wider political and geopolitical factors, according to a new book China’s Wars: The Politics and Diplomacy Behind its Military Coercion by former Ambassador to China Vijay Gokhale
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Context
Former Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale discusses China's decision-making in conflicts, highlighting that Beijing uses 'grey zone coercion' and views its relations with India through a global geopolitical lens rather than a purely bilateral one. He argues that China's use of force is driven by a confluence of factors, including political objectives and domestic politics, rather than just territorial ambitions.
UPSC Perspectives
International Relations
Gokhale's analysis underscores a critical asymmetry in how India and China perceive their relationship. India tends to view its interactions with China through a bilateral lens, focusing heavily on immediate issues like the (LAC) dispute. However, Beijing's calculus is consistently framed within a global geopolitical context. China evaluates conflicts, including those with India, based on how they affect its position in the broader balance of power, particularly vis-à-vis the United States. This perspective explains why China might escalate or de-escalate tensions on the border depending on external factors, such as U.S. distractions elsewhere (as seen in the 1958 Taiwan Strait Crisis). For UPSC Mains (GS2), this highlights the need for India's foreign policy to look beyond bilateral mechanisms and consider China's broader strategic goals, adapting its approach to account for Beijing's perception of a collapsing international order.
Internal Security
The concept of 'grey zone coercion' is central to understanding China's modern strategy. Unlike a traditional 'hot war', grey zone warfare involves persistent, low-level conflict that remains below the threshold of conventional military engagement. This strategy utilizes a combination of military, economic, psychological, diplomatic, and propaganda tools to achieve political objectives without triggering a full-scale war. In the context of the , China uses this tactic to apply continuous pressure, altering the status quo incrementally (often termed 'salami-slicing'). The objective is rarely purely territorial; it is deeply political, aimed at coercing the adversary into a submissive posture. For GS3 (Security), this necessitates a shift in India's border management strategy, moving from purely conventional military responses to developing counter-strategies that address the multi-dimensional nature of grey zone threats, including economic resilience and robust strategic communication.
Governance
A crucial insight from the interview is the correlation between China's domestic politics and its foreign policy decisions, challenging the perception of China as a monolithic, opaque entity where internal dynamics don't affect external actions. Just as in democracies, internal political pressures, factional struggles (like those between Mao Zedong and more pragmatic leaders like Zhou Enlai), and the need to consolidate power or distract from domestic failures can influence Beijing's decision to use force or initiate a crisis. This implies that understanding China's internal political landscape is essential for predicting its external behaviour. For policymakers, this means investing in deep expertise on Chinese domestic affairs to anticipate potential provocations or shifts in its diplomatic posture, recognizing that aggressive actions on the border might be linked to internal political necessities rather than immediate bilateral disputes.