India’s Index of Core Industries gets an updated series: What has changed? | Explained
The Centre has released a revised series of the ICI, updating the base year, sectoral coverage and weights. Here is what has changed and what it means for industrial growth
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Context
The Union Government has updated the base year and methodology for calculating the (ICI), a key macroeconomic indicator. The base year has been revised from 2011-12 to 2022-23 to better reflect current industrial realities and align with other major metrics like (GDP) and the (IIP). Notably, the number of core sectors has increased from eight to nine with the inclusion of iron ore.
UPSC Perspectives
Economic
The (ICI) is a crucial high-frequency indicator of India's industrial health, released monthly by the under the (DPIIT). Originally, it comprised eight sectors (coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilizers, steel, cement, and electricity), which collectively accounted for 40.27% of the weight of items included in the (IIP). The recent revision to base year 2022-23 is vital because an outdated base year fails to capture structural shifts in the economy—such as the growing importance of new sectors or changing consumption patterns. By updating the base year, the data becomes a more accurate gauge of industrial activity and a reliable input for policy-making. Furthermore, adding iron ore (given its intensive use in industrial production) expands the index to nine sectors, necessitating a significant redistribution of weights. For Prelims, memorize the new composition and the fact that electricity now holds the highest weight (~30.9%), followed by refinery products (~22.5%), while coal and natural gas saw significant downward revisions.
Governance
The methodological changes introduced in the new ICI series highlight the government's effort to standardize and improve data quality across various statistical frameworks. A key change is calculating steel production on a gross output basis rather than a net output basis, aligning it with the methodology used for the IIP. This synchronization is crucial because conflicting data from different indices can lead to confusing signals for policymakers and investors. Similarly, in the coal sector, the updated series now measures only raw coal, excluding middling and washed coal. This modification addresses a significant flaw: double counting, since middling and washed coal are derived from raw coal. By eliminating such statistical noise, the (MoSPI) and DPIIT are enhancing the robustness of national statistics. For UPSC Mains, this illustrates the ongoing need for statistical reforms in India to ensure data credibility, which is foundational for effective economic planning and evaluating the impact of government interventions.
Analytical
The transition to the new ICI series demonstrates that while short-term data points might show variations (e.g., May 2026 growth revised from 0.5% to 3.2%), the long-term macroeconomic picture remains relatively stable (e.g., full-year 2025-26 growth revised only slightly from 1.1% to 1.0%). This phenomenon occurs because short-term volatility often smooths out over longer periods. For UPSC aspirants, this emphasizes the importance of looking at long-term trends rather than reacting to single data points. Furthermore, understanding the weights of individual components within the index is essential. The significant increase in the weight of the electricity sector (from ~19.8% to ~30.9%) reflects the growing role of power consumption as a proxy for overall economic activity. Conversely, the reduced weights for coal and natural gas might reflect structural shifts or changes in their relative contribution to the broader industrial base compared to a decade ago. Questions on the IIP and ICI frequently appear in Prelims, demanding clarity on components, weights, and the releasing agencies.