RBI raises repo rate to 5.5% in first hike under Governor Sanjay Malhotra, shifts stance to ‘calibrated tightening’
The RBI raised its benchmark repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.5%, its first hike since February 2023, and shifted its policy stance to ‘calibrated tightening’. The move came as the central bank raised its FY27 growth forecast to 7.1% while warning that inflation and its outlook were no longer benign.
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Context
The of the raised the benchmark repo rate to 5.5% and shifted its policy stance from 'neutral' to 'calibrated tightening' to control inflation. The also raised its FY27 growth forecast to 7.1%, but flagged concerns over rising inflation risks, leading to a surge in bond yields and a drop in the rupee's value.
UPSC Perspectives
Economic
The 's core mandate under the is maintaining price stability while keeping in mind the objective of growth. The decision to raise the repo rate (the rate at which the RBI lends to commercial banks) by the to 5.5% is a classic contractionary monetary policy move designed to curb aggregate demand. By shifting the policy stance from 'neutral' to 'calibrated tightening', the central bank indicates that future actions will likely be rate hikes or pauses, ruling out rate cuts in the near term. This shift reflects a hawkish approach (prioritizing inflation control over growth). The increase in repo rate directly translates to higher lending rates for retail and MSME loans, which are often benchmarked to external rates like the repo rate, thereby making credit more expensive and slowing down borrowing and spending.
Global Context
The 's actions cannot be viewed in isolation, as India's monetary policy is increasingly influenced by global financial conditions. The article highlights that major central banks, including the and the , have also been raising rates to combat global inflation. When advanced economies raise interest rates, it triggers capital outflows from emerging markets like India as investors seek higher returns in safer assets. This dynamic, known as the interest rate differential, puts depreciating pressure on the domestic currency (the rupee). To prevent excessive depreciation, which can lead to imported inflation (higher costs for imported goods like crude oil), the is often forced to align its monetary policy with global trends, even if domestic growth considerations might otherwise suggest a pause.
Financial Markets
The bond and forex markets react sensitively to monetary policy signals. A rate hike typically leads to an increase in bond yields (the return an investor gets on a bond). This happens because existing bonds with lower interest rates become less attractive compared to newly issued bonds with higher rates, causing the prices of existing bonds to fall (bond prices and yields have an inverse relationship). The article notes the benchmark 10-year Indian bond yield climbing to 7.24%. Furthermore, the article mentions a large pool of liquidity generated by the foreign currency non-resident-bank [FCNR(B)] programme. This refers to a deposit scheme for NRIs allowing them to park funds in foreign currencies in Indian banks. The governor noted that this surplus liquidity provides a cushion for banks, meaning they might not immediately raise deposit rates despite the repo rate hike, potentially leading to slower monetary transmission on the deposit side.