Resist temptation to defend ₹ at any cost: Raghuram Rajan cautions India against excessive use of forex reserves
Raghuram Rajan said India should avoid aggressively defending the rupee amid the current depreciation spree, stressing that a weaker rupee could only benefit India. The former RBI Governor cautioned against excessive use of foreign exchange reserves to maintain a specific exchange rate level.
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Context
Former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan has cautioned the against rapidly depleting its foreign exchange reserves to defend the depreciating Indian rupee, which recently hit a record low. He advised a long-term view, arguing that currency depreciation can boost export competitiveness, and warned of further pressures from elevated oil prices and geopolitical tensions.
UPSC Perspectives
Economic
This article highlights the complex dynamics of exchange rate management and its impact on the broader economy. Rajan cautions against using foreign exchange reserves to maintain a specific currency level, a practice often aimed at controlling imported inflation and maintaining financial stability. However, rapid depletion of reserves can leave the country vulnerable to external shocks. He argues that a depreciating rupee isn't inherently negative; it makes Indian exports cheaper and more competitive globally, potentially narrowing the current account deficit (the gap between a country's exports and imports of goods and services). UPSC often tests candidates on the trade-offs involved in currency intervention, asking whether the should prioritize currency stability or export competitiveness.
Governance
The situation underscores the crucial role of the in managing macroeconomic stability. The must balance its mandate of inflation targeting with the need to ensure financial stability and support economic growth. Intervention in the foreign exchange market to stabilize the rupee can impact domestic liquidity, requiring the to undertake sterilization operations (actions to neutralize the impact of forex intervention on domestic money supply). The article mentions the considering monetary policy measures, such as interest rate adjustments, to manage currency pressure, reflecting the intricate connection between domestic monetary policy and external sector dynamics. This links directly to the GS-3 syllabus on the 's functions and monetary policy framework.
Geopolitical
The article illustrates how global events directly impact India's macroeconomic fundamentals. Elevated international crude oil prices, rising US Treasury yields (which attract foreign capital away from emerging markets), and the potential for conflict escalation in the Middle East are significant external pressures. India is heavily dependent on oil imports, meaning higher oil prices directly widen the current account deficit and exert downward pressure on the rupee. The reference to the FCNR(B) route (Foreign Currency Non-Resident Bank accounts, used to attract foreign currency deposits from NRIs) highlights the strategies employed to bolster reserves during periods of external stress. Understanding these linkages is essential for analyzing India's external vulnerabilities and resilience, a frequent theme in the UPSC Mains exam.