Russia says nuclear weapons the 'only' guarantee against global war
The last nuclear arms control treaty between Russia and the United States, New START, expired in February, releasing restrictions on the world's two largest nuclear powers
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Context
The Kremlin stated that nuclear weapons are currently the only deterrent against a global war, following the expiration of the treaty between Russia and the United States. This lapse removes restrictions on the arsenals of the two largest nuclear powers, sparking concerns of a renewed arms race as both sides show little inclination to negotiate a replacement treaty.
UPSC Perspectives
International Relations
The expiration of marks a critical juncture in global nuclear non-proliferation and arms control. This treaty was the last remaining bilateral agreement capping deployed strategic nuclear warheads for the US and Russia. Its absence signifies a breakdown in the established strategic stability framework that governed Cold War and post-Cold War nuclear dynamics. The Kremlin’s assertion that nuclear deterrence is the sole remaining global security mechanism highlights a dangerous shift towards reliance on . From a UPSC perspective, this event underscores the fragile nature of international treaties and the challenges in maintaining structures when major powers disagree. Questions could focus on the implications of a renewed arms race on global security architectures, the shifting balance of power, and the potential cascading effects on regional conflicts, including the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Geopolitical
The situation reflects the complex multipolar realities of contemporary geopolitics. The US push to include China in future arms control agreements acknowledges Beijing's growing nuclear capabilities and its transition from a regional to a global strategic actor. China’s refusal, citing the vast disparity between its arsenal and those of the US and Russia, complicates negotiations. Russia's counter-demand to include US allies, Britain and France, further demonstrates the difficulty of transitioning from bilateral (US-Russia) to multilateral arms control frameworks. This dynamic illustrates the challenges of establishing new norms in an era of great power competition. For the exam, understand the strategic calculus of each nation: the US seeking to contain both Russia and China, Russia aiming to maintain strategic parity with the West, and China focusing on securing its second-strike capability and regional dominance.
Security & Technology
The Kremlin’s mention of emerging non-nuclear weapons matching the destructive power of nuclear arms points to a significant shift in military technology. This refers to advancements in hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs), autonomous weapons systems, and advanced cyber warfare capabilities, which can disrupt critical infrastructure and strategic command systems without crossing the nuclear threshold. This blurs the traditional lines of strategic deterrence. The lack of arms control agreements covering these new technologies creates a volatile environment where miscalculation or misattribution could escalate rapidly into major conflict. UPSC aspirants should analyze how the integration of into military doctrines necessitates a re-evaluation of traditional security frameworks. Potential exam questions might explore the impact of non-kinetic warfare and hypersonic systems on global stability and the pressing need for new international regimes to regulate these dual-use technologies.