Southwest monsoon ends with 12% deficit
Lowest monsoon rainfall since 2015; east and northeast saw driest monsoon since 1901, in line with recent trends; southern pensinsula saw fourth lowest rainfall since 1901; October expected to be hotter and drier than usual in most parts of the country
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Context
The (IMD) announced that India’s 2026 southwest monsoon ended with a 12.6% deficit, the lowest rainfall recorded since 2015. The deficit was primarily driven by a strong event, with the east and northeast regions experiencing their driest monsoon since systematic records began in 1901. The IMD predicts a hotter and drier October as the southwest monsoon withdraws and the northeast monsoon commences.
UPSC Perspectives
Geographical
The southwest monsoon is the lifeline of India's agricultural economy, typically delivering over 70% of the country's annual rainfall between June and September. This article highlights the significant impact of the [El Nino] phenomenon on the Indian monsoon. involves the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, which alters global atmospheric circulation and typically suppresses rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. Conversely, its counterpart, La Niña, often brings enhanced rainfall. The IMD's data reveals stark regional disparities. The east and northeast regions recorded their lowest rainfall since 1901, pointing towards a structural shift or a long-term diminishing trend in rainfall patterns in these areas, possibly linked to broader climate change dynamics. Interestingly, while suppresses the southwest monsoon, the IMD noted that it can lead to an increase in western disturbances, potentially bringing beneficial winter rains to parts of northern India, which is crucial for the Rabi crop season.
Economic
A deficient monsoon has cascading effects on the Indian economy, primarily through its impact on the agricultural sector, which still employs a significant portion of the workforce. The 12.6% deficit, placing the rainfall at 87% of the Long Period Average (LPA) (the average rainfall recorded over a 50-year period, currently pegged at 868.6 mm), raises concerns for the Kharif (summer) crop yields. Deficient rainfall in 17 out of 36 meteorological subdivisions implies localized agricultural distress, potential lower production of key crops like paddy, pulses, and oilseeds, and a subsequent risk of food inflation. The (RBI) closely monitors monsoon performance as it directly influences agricultural output and rural demand, which are key components of its inflation-targeting framework. However, the IMD's forecast of potential increased rains from western disturbances in the north offers a silver lining, as high soil moisture could support the upcoming winter (Rabi) sowing season, particularly for wheat.
Environmental
The IMD's observation of a "marked trend" of diminishing rainfall in east and northeast India underscores the growing realities of climate change. This region, historically known for its high rainfall, is experiencing shifting climatic baselines. The increasing frequency and intensity of events, often exacerbated by global warming, present a complex challenge for climate modeling and forecasting. The IMD, the nodal agency for meteorological observations under the Ministry of Earth Sciences, relies on complex global models to predict monsoon performance. While their overall forecast of a subdued monsoon was accurate, the article notes discrepancies in regional and monthly predictions, highlighting the inherent uncertainties in predicting dynamic weather systems under changing climatic conditions. Furthermore, the forecast for a hotter and drier October aligns with global trends of rising temperatures, exacerbating concerns about water security and heat stress in the post-monsoon period.