Southwest monsoon withdraws from entire country: IMD
This year's southwest monsoon ended with 759.4 mm of rain, 12.6% below the normal of 868.6 mm according to the IMD
360° Perspective Analysis
Deep-dive into Geography, Polity, Economy, History, Environment & Social dimensions — AI-powered, on-demand
Context
The (IMD) has announced the complete withdrawal of the southwest monsoon from India and the simultaneous onset of the northeast monsoon over southern peninsular India. The southwest monsoon concluded with a 12.6% rainfall deficit, primarily attributed to strong conditions in the tropical Pacific, which are expected to persist through early 2027.
UPSC Perspectives
Geographical
The Indian monsoon system is characterized by two distinct phases driven by the seasonal reversal of winds. The southwest monsoon (June-September) brings the majority of India's annual rainfall as moisture-laden winds blow from the Indian Ocean towards the heated subcontinent. Its withdrawal marks a transition period. Conversely, the northeast monsoon (October-December), also known as the retreating monsoon, involves dry, continental winds blowing from land to sea. As these winds cross the , they pick up moisture and deliver crucial rainfall to the southeastern coast, including Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, and parts of Kerala and Karnataka. Understanding the mechanics of the (ITCZ) shift and the role of the is critical for UPSC Geography.
Environmental
The 12.6% rainfall deficit this season is strongly linked to , the warming phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become abnormally warm, altering global atmospheric circulation patterns. For India, typically results in a weaker , leading to suppressed monsoon rainfall and increased probability of droughts. The article notes forecasts by the predicting a potentially record-breaking peaking in December 2026. Aspirants must also study La Nina (the cooling phase, which usually enhances Indian monsoons) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), as the interplay between these teleconnections determines monsoon performance.
Economic
The monsoon's performance is intrinsically linked to India's macroeconomic stability. The southwest monsoon is vital for the Kharif crop season (e.g., rice, cotton, soybeans), which relies heavily on timely and adequate rainfall. A significant deficit, as seen this year, can reduce agricultural output, strain rural incomes, and exert upward pressure on food inflation. The northeast monsoon, while accounting for a smaller percentage of total rainfall, is critical for the Rabi crop cycle (winter crops) in southern states and for replenishing reservoirs that sustain irrigation and drinking water supplies during the dry months. Policymakers must focus on climate-resilient agriculture and improved water management strategies to mitigate the impacts of increasingly erratic monsoon patterns driven by phenomena like .