‘Structural differences have not disappeared’: Chinese strategic affairs scholar on India-China ties
On the border, I would expect the immediate focus to be less on a dramatic settlement and more on institutionalising stability, says Hu Shisheng, leading Chinese strategic affairs scholar on South Asia.
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Context
The 25th round of Special Representatives (SRs) talks between India and China focuses on institutionalizing stability along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) ahead of the BRICS Summit. While the 'structural differences' remain unresolved, both nations aim for a 'sustainable modus vivendi' prioritizing practical cooperation and risk management over immediate boundary settlements.
UPSC Perspectives
Geopolitical
The India-China relationship is characterized by a complex mix of cooperation and competition, described here as competitive coexistence. This signifies an effort to manage strategic risks without abandoning core national interests. The upcoming serves as a catalyst for near-term stability, emphasizing the role of multilateral forums in facilitating bilateral engagement. Furthermore, the scholar notes that shifting global dynamics, such as fluctuations in and , influence New Delhi's and Beijing's strategic calculus. The concept of an early harvest, aiming for initial agreements on less contentious issues before tackling major disputes, is crucial for building trust and momentum in complex negotiations. UPSC often questions how global power shifts impact regional stability and bilateral ties.
Security
The focus of the talks has shifted from immediate boundary resolution to institutionalizing stability. This involves preventing miscalculations and strengthening communication channels along the . The on border affairs plays a vital role in maintaining peace and tranquility at the border. The proposed Expert Group under the WMCC aims to explore delimitation in relatively less contentious sectors. This gradual approach acknowledges the deep-rooted structural differences and prioritizes conflict avoidance and manageable differences. Questions regarding border management strategies, the role of institutional mechanisms, and the challenges of undefined boundaries are common in GS Paper 3.
Diplomatic
The talks between the National Security Advisor and the Chinese Foreign Minister highlight the importance of high-level diplomatic engagement in managing fraught relationships. The immediate priority is to create a favorable political atmosphere for potential leader-level interactions, specifically an expected meeting between and at the BRICS Summit. This underscores the interplay between border stability and broader diplomatic normalization. The scholar emphasizes that normalization is viewed as strategic risk management rather than a fundamental strategic realignment, indicating a realistic assessment of the relationship's limitations and potential. This nuanced understanding is essential for analyzing bilateral diplomacy in the context of persistent strategic competition.